Two months ago, when we last updated the VMF Research Leaderboard, precious metals had lost momentum.
Biotechnology was moving forward. New pockets of strength were beginning to emerge. And the composition of our Top 10 was changing with them.
Markets have rotated again.
With prices through September 2, the Debasement Trade has come roaring back.
Here’s our updated Top 10 Positions - September 2nd 2026:
Junior gold miners are now showing a 198% total return from our original reference price. Altius Minerals is sitting at roughly the same level. Senior gold miners are up 177%. Silver is back above 100%. And our broader metals and mining exposure has returned to the Top 10.
Quite a reversal from July.
But the more interesting development is not simply that gold-related assets are working again.
It is why they may be working again.
Earlier this year, we introduced what we called the TACO Zone: the region in long-term Treasury yields where rising borrowing costs would stop being merely a market price and begin interfering with Washington’s own agenda.
The T.A.C.O. Framework: How to Spot a Trump Pivot Before Energy Shocks Mutate Into a Growth Crisis
The following analysis is based on the weekly update released on March 21, 2026.
We later showed how movements in the long end had already proved remarkably useful in anticipating changes in the Administration’s behaviour.
The Treasury Yield Signals That Predicted Trump’s Ceasefire
This Weekly Update was first published for Tier One subscribers on 25 July 2026.
In August, however, the test became much more consequential.
The 30-year Treasury yield pushed through the area we had been watching.
And Treasury responded.
Beginning in September, liquidity-support buybacks in the 10-to-30-year part of the curve are being increased.
Now, let us be precise...
This is not QE. It is not yield-curve control (at least, not yet).
And the amounts involved are tiny relative to a Treasury market measured in tens of trillions of dollars.
But we think focusing on the amount risks missing the message.
The long bond produced a policy response.
That is what we wanted to know.
The TACO Zone was never about finding one magical yield at which Washington would suddenly panic. It was about identifying the point at which price would begin to influence behaviour.
Bessent and the Treasury have now given us the first important answer.
Their tolerance for restrictive conditions at the long end is not unlimited.
And, almost immediately, several of the assets we would expect to respond to that signal began doing exactly that.
Gold strengthened. Silver strengthened. Miners strengthened. Bitcoin strengthened. Ethereum strengthened.
Different assets. Different forms of scarcity. Different sensitivities.
But increasingly, the same message.
That also brings us back to another thesis we have been developing publicly for months:
The Dovish Shock.
From the beginning, our argument has been more nuanced than simply forecasting rate cuts.
Kevin Warsh does not need to become a dove.
He does not need to abandon his inflation-fighting credentials.
And he certainly does not need to engineer an emergency easing cycle.
The hurdle is much lower.
Policy merely needs to prove less restrictive than markets have already discounted.
Until recently, that thesis depended heavily on the Federal Reserve.
It no longer does.
Treasury has moved first.
And that is why the return of the Debasement Trade to our Leaderboard deserves more attention than another rally in precious metals.
The higher-beta parts of the complex are now doing particularly well. Junior miners have pushed back towards the top of the table. Altius is again approaching a triple. Silver has recovered strongly. Metals and mining have re-entered the Top 10.
The market appears to be travelling further out along the scarcity curve.
Crypto may be next.
It still does not appear in our Leaderboard.
We find that rather interesting.
A substantial part of the original asymmetry in gold, silver and miners has already been realised. Some of those positions have doubled. Some have been partially monetised. The trade has paid us handsomely.
Crypto is in a very different place.
The correction left technical damage behind. Sentiment remains far less enthusiastic. Bitcoin and Ethereum are only now beginning to repair their longer-term structures.
Yet the backdrop surrounding them is improving.
If Warsh eventually follows the Treasury... not by capitulating, but simply by proving less hawkish than the market expects... then some of our crypto exposures sit directly in the transmission channel.
And the next Leaderboard could look very different.
Our broader view on gold and crypto has always been that investors are asking the wrong question when they insist on choosing between them.
The Only Assets That Owe You Nothing
The most important hypothesis we are testing right now is also one of the most consequential for portfolios: the market may be preparing for the wrong monetary shock.
They represent different forms of scarcity.
They perform different jobs.
And in the right monetary environment, there is no reason both cannot work.
Meanwhile, just beneath the Top 10, something else is happening.
And it has almost nothing to do with Bessent, Treasury buybacks or the price of gold.
Our biotechnology theses are beginning to come alive.
Regular readers will know that this is not a new fascination.
Earlier this summer, we argued that one of the most interesting consequences of cheaper intelligence could emerge in industries where the cost of getting things wrong remains enormous.
Biotechnology fits that description unusually well.
Drug development is expensive. Failure rates are high. Clinical evidence is difficult to generate. Regulatory approval cannot be automated away. And modest improvements in the probability of success can create enormous economic value.
That was the premise behind our broader work on what we called The Intelligence Dividend.
We subsequently took that framework into two very different company-level investment cases.
One centred on a scientific discovery engine built around scarce biological evidence.
The other on a capital-light royalty model capable of participating in successful medicines without bearing the full economics of discovering them.
We are now making both of those pieces (originally published for paying subscribers) freely available as part of a broader release of selected research from behind the paywall:
Neither position has yet earned a place in the Top 10.
They are not alone.
And that is perhaps the most useful way to think about the Leaderboard.
It shows what has already worked.
It does not show the much larger group competing to get there.
Today, precious metals and real assets are once again dominating the visible table. Crypto may become the next beneficiary if the policy signal broadens. Biotechnology is beginning to build momentum for completely different reasons. And elsewhere across our product roster, several other positions are quietly moving closer to the threshold.
That is exactly what we want.
Not ten versions of the same macro bet.
But different sources of asymmetry, across different asset classes and different investment theses, capable of coming alive at different moments.
The public Leaderboard shows the winners once they have earned their place.
Subscribers get to see the race before the names appear on the board.
And, more importantly, they get to understand why we entered it in the first place.
Good Investing!
- Vasco
Important Disclosure
This article was produced by Vasco Marques de Freitas, CFA, CMT, Founder and CEO of VMF Research, Lda. It contains general investment research and market commentary and may include investment recommendations or information suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 on market abuse and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958. VMF Research’s activity as a producer of investment recommendations is subject to the applicable European market-abuse framework and to supervision by the Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários (CMVM) in Portugal.
This article is not personalised investment advice and has not been prepared by reference to any reader’s investment objectives, financial circumstances, knowledge, experience, liquidity requirements or tolerance for risk. References to previous recommendations, Model Portfolio positions, market scenarios or possible future Leaderboard entrants should be understood in the context of the research and investment horizons described in the relevant publications. Views may change as market conditions and evidence evolve and are reviewed through VMF Research’s monthly, weekly or ad hoc publications.
Research cut-off: 2 September 2026, following the close of the relevant markets.
First dissemination: 3 September 2026.
The Leaderboard is a selective presentation of VMF Research’s ten highest-returning recommendations across its paid publications and is not a complete record of its recommendations or Model Portfolio performance. Returns are measured from the original published reference price to the applicable exit price for closed positions or the relevant market price for positions that remain wholly or partially open. Unless otherwise stated, reported returns include recorded cash distributions and exclude taxes, transaction costs, custody charges, bid–ask spreads and foreign-exchange effects. The status column identifies positions that remain open, have been closed or have been partially realised. Displayed returns do not represent returns earned by clients or subscribers and should not be interpreted as the performance of an investable fund or managed account.
VMF Research’s Model Portfolios are illustrative research portfolios. They do not represent client assets, personalised mandates or transactions executed by VMF Research. References to the TACO Zone, the Dovish Shock, Treasury or Federal Reserve policy, precious metals, crypto assets, biotechnology and potential future market outcomes reflect research hypotheses, interpretations and forward-looking judgments that may not materialise. Linked articles were prepared at their respective original research dates and should be read together with the methodologies, assumptions, principal risks and disclosures contained in those publications.
Disclosure of interests: as at the research cut-off, legal entities controlled by the author hold long positions in Altius Minerals Corporation and the ARK Innovation ETF and hold long economic exposure to Bitcoin, Ether and Solana through listed exchange-traded products. These interests may create actual, potential or perceived conflicts and should be considered when evaluating the analysis. Interests may change after the stated disclosure date. Neither VMF Research nor the author received compensation from any issuer discussed in connection with the preparation of this article, and no issuer reviewed, approved or amended its investment conclusions before first dissemination.
Equities, precious-metals and mining securities, biotechnology investments, innovation-focused ETFs and crypto assets can be highly volatile and may result in the loss of some or all invested capital. Past performance, Model Portfolio performance and previously successful recommendations are not reliable indicators of future results. Readers remain responsible for conducting their own analysis and, where appropriate, should consult an authorised financial intermediary or adviser before making any investment decision.