Gold Steps Back. Biotech Steps Forward
VMF Research - Top 10 Positions - July 3rd 2026
A good Leaderboard should not remain static.
Markets change. Leadership rotates. And the strongest investment processes should capture that evolution before it becomes obvious.
That is precisely what is happening inside VMF Research’s latest Top 10 Positions, with prices as of July 2, 2026.
Our precious-metals complex has lost momentum.
Physical gold has now dropped out of the Top 10, while junior gold miners, senior miners, and silver have moved lower in the ranking.
That does not invalidate the original thesis.
Far from it.
The Debasement Trade has already rewarded us handsomely, and we crystallized partial profits after several of those positions doubled.
But while precious metals have been consolidating, other parts of our Model Portfolios have been gaining material traction.
And the strength is increasingly broad-based.
Royalties.
Disruptive innovation.
Spin-offs.
Healthcare.
Biotechnology.
One sector, however, is beginning to stand out.
Biotech is moving to the front
Biotechnology now occupies three very different places in our public Leaderboard.
Grail remains in first place, with a closed return of 272%.
Roivant Sciences has climbed to third place and is now showing a 215% return while the position remains open.
And SBIO, our broader exposure to medical-breakthrough companies, has entered the Top 10 with a 79% gain.
One individual winner could be dismissed as fortunate security selection.
Two would be harder to ignore.
But strength across a closed position, a live individual stock, and a diversified sector vehicle begins to look like something more meaningful:
A theme gaining traction.
That is why we took particular interest in recent comments from Dario Amodei, Anthropic’s founder and CEO.
Amodei described himself as positive on biotechnology and argued that the sector may be approaching an AI-driven renaissance. His conviction is that artificial intelligence could accelerate progress across areas such as peptide therapies, cell-based treatments, and programmable biology.
That is remarkably close to the premise behind our original investment thesis.
Biology is extraordinarily complex.
Drug discovery is expensive, slow, and burdened by enormous failure rates.
But it is also unusually well suited to the capabilities AI is beginning to develop: pattern recognition, simulation, optimization, adaptive experimentation, and the ability to search vast design spaces far more efficiently than human researchers can manage alone.
We have believed for some time that biotechnology could become one of the most important application layers of artificial intelligence.
So, naturally, we welcome validation from one of the most important figures in the AI landscape.
But intellectual validation is not the kind that matters most in markets.
Price validation is.
And that is increasingly what our Model Portfolios are receiving.
Grail has already delivered an exceptional realized return.
Roivant continues to compound as an open position.
And the broader biotech complex is now demonstrating that the strength extends beyond a single company.
This is exactly how an investment theme should begin to reveal itself.
First through the thesis.
Then through individual securities.
And finally through broader market participation.
Biotech may be entering that third stage.
But it is far from the only area showing strength beneath the surface.
Our roster of possible new Leaderboard entrants remains extensive and spans several very different themes, sectors, geographies, and investment structures.
Some are already approaching the threshold.
Others remain earlier in their development.
The public leaderboard shows what has already worked.
There is a great deal happening beneath the Top 10.
Stay tuned.
Good Investing!
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Important Disclosure
This article contains general investment research and commentary produced by Vasco Marques de Freitas, CFA, CMT, Founder and CEO of VMF Research, Lda. It is not personalised investment advice and does not consider any reader’s individual objectives, financial circumstances or tolerance for risk. References to previous recommendations do not constitute a new recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument. The underlying views are reviewed through VMF Research’s monthly, weekly or ad hoc publications and may change as market conditions and evidence evolve.
The Leaderboard is a selective presentation of VMF Research’s ten highest-returning recommendations and is not a complete record of its recommendations or Model Portfolio performance. The information and prices are stated as of 2 July 2026, at the close of the relevant markets. Returns are measured from the original published reference price to the applicable exit price for closed positions or the relevant market price for open positions. The status column identifies positions that remain open, have been closed or have been partially realised. Displayed returns should not be interpreted as the realised or net return earned by any investor and do not reflect individual execution, fees, taxes or financial circumstances. The Model Portfolios are illustrative research portfolios and do not represent client assets or transactions executed by VMF Research. Equities, biotechnology, sector ETFs, commodity-related securities and innovation-focused investments can be highly volatile and may result in substantial losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own analysis and, where appropriate, consult an authorised financial adviser.
Disclosure of interests: as of publication, legal entities controlled by the author hold long positions in Altius Minerals Corporation and ARK Innovation ETF. These interests may create potential conflicts and should be considered when evaluating the analysis.