What a month this has been...
Financial markets are being ravaged by another serious risk-off wave, triggered by the latest Trumpquake: the war in Iran.
Risk assets have been hit hard, macro narratives have been thrown back into flux, and investors are being reminded, yet again, that in true crisis eras, history does not move in a straight line. It lurches. It shocks. And when it does, assumptions that had seemed stable only days earlier suddenly begin to look fragile, conditional, and open to renegotiations.
Throughout March, across the entire product roster at VMF Research, we have done far more than simply react to the headlines.
We have gone deep into this event, not just its immediate market implications, but its possible historical meaning.
In Alpha Tier, for instance, we asked whether this war in Iran could become America’s Suez Crisis of 1956. Not because history repeats mechanically. Not because every geopolitical rupture deserves imperial comparisons.
But because moments like these can reveal far more than investors first assume. They can expose strategic weakness, test credibility, and accelerate transitions that were already underway.
And, as always, we did not stop at analysis.
We adjusted our Model Portfolios.
In VMF’s Strategic Asset Allocation, we added a new position with heavy exposure to the Fourth Turning dynamics we have been writing about so extensively. In VMF’s Security Selection, we added a crypto Tollbooth specifically designed to benefit from what we believe may be the anatomy of this big cycle’s monetary reset. In other words, we are not merely trying to describe the world that may be emerging. We are trying to position for it.
That brings us to the Leaderboard.
At first glance, the Top 10 has not changed much.
The same broad themes remain in command. The same core positions continue to tell the story.
But just below that Top 10, some of our energy-linked positions are now vying for a place among the leaders. That is worth watching closely. In an environment increasingly shaped by war, chokepoints, and strategic scarcity, energy can very quickly move from supporting actor to central character.
At the same time, the drawdowns we are seeing in several other positions are a useful reminder that rigorous risk management is not optional.
It never is.
We have positions that have left the Top 10, such as ARK Innovation - ARKK 0.00%↑ , but where the process still worked exactly as intended because we exited half the position when it doubled.
That matters. In a volatile market, the path of a position matters almost as much as the final outcome. Booking gains, cutting exposure, and refusing to let a winning trade become a round trip is part of the discipline required to navigate a true crisis era.
But perhaps most important of all is this: in the middle of so much pessimism, we are finding unique pockets of opportunity.
Particularly in the Quality Risk Factor.
That is where some of the most interesting mispricings now appear to be emerging. High-quality franchises, with durable economics and strong competitive positions, are increasingly being priced like average businesses... or in some cases, even worse. That is the sort of setup serious investors should pay attention to. Because when fear becomes indiscriminate, quality often goes on sale with everything else.
There is, quite simply, a lot going on.
A serious geopolitical rupture. A market under pressure. A Leaderboard that remains more resilient than many might expect. Energy-linked positions pressing upward. Fresh evidence of why risk management matters.
And, beneath the surface, some very interesting opportunities beginning to emerge.
Stay tuned.
Vasco