Weekly Pulse: The Art of Refusing to Break (July 11, 2026)
“A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence.”
David Hume
This week gave crypto investors almost every excuse to sell.
Renewed tensions with Iran weighed on risk appetite. Oil moved higher. The latest Federal Reserve communications reinforced the market’s hawkish interpretation of monetary policy. And liquidity conditions remain far from the kind of backdrop that normally allows crypto-assets to thrive.
Yet something important happened. They refused to break.
Bitcoin continues to test one of the most consequential long-term support zones on its chart. This is the area where the secular breakout, major retracement levels, and long-term trend references converge.
And the week provided a powerful excuse to lose it. It did not. That does not mean the correction is over. Bitcoin remains more than 50% below its peak, the intermediate trend is damaged, and sentiment across the crypto complex remains deeply depressed. But important market signals often begin with what fails to happen.
The bears received the geopolitical shock.
They received the hawkish Fed. They received the tightening narrative. And Bitcoin still held support.
Ethereum is sending an equally interesting message. Its longer-term structure remains less constructive than Bitcoin’s, and we should not pretend otherwise. But ETH has not made a lower low. More importantly, it is beginning to gain relative strength against Bitcoin. That is precisely the kind of change we want to see. Bitcoin typically provides the first line of defence when liquidity is scarce. Ethereum and the broader crypto ecosystem tend to respond later, once investors become more willing to accept risk. If ETH is beginning to outperform before the macro backdrop has clearly improved, the market may be looking beyond today’s headlines.
Solana is showing a similar pattern.
Its chart remains volatile and technically damaged, but it too is refusing to make a lower low while beginning to improve against Bitcoin at the margin.
None of these signals is decisive in isolation.
Together, they deserve attention.
Bitcoin is holding major support. Ethereum is beginning to outperform it. Solana is attempting to do the same. So, what is the market starting to discount?
Perhaps investors are looking ahead to renewed progress on the CLARITY Act and a more durable regulatory framework for digital assets. Perhaps they are beginning to anticipate an improvement in global liquidity. Or perhaps the selling pressure has simply become exhausted after one of the deepest sentiment resets in crypto’s history.
Our working hypothesis remains unchanged. Markets are still positioned for a more hawkish monetary regime than the evidence may ultimately justify. If inflation pressures ease, geopolitical risk fades, and policymakers move from threatening additional tightening toward an extended hold, the resulting repricing could become the Dovish Shock we have been testing across our publications.
And if that thesis proves correct, crypto is precisely the asset class we would expect to respond most forcefully.
Stay tuned.
Good investing!
Vasco Marques de Freitas, CFA, CMT
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Important Disclosure
This Article reproduces general investment research from the Alpha Tier Weekly Update published on 11 July 2026, produced by Vasco Marques de Freitas, CFA, CMT, Founder and CEO of VMF Research, Lda. The analysis and charts reflect the information available at the research cut-off. Cryptoassets trade continuously, and prices may have changed materially since publication.
This publication contains information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy. It is not personalised investment advice and does not consider any reader’s objectives, financial circumstances, knowledge, experience or tolerance for risk.
The analysis combines macroeconomic, liquidity, technical and relative-strength evidence within a medium- to long-term framework. References to technical support, improving relative strength, regulatory developments or a possible “Dovish Shock” are conditional analytical judgments, not assurances of future performance. Views may change as the evidence evolves and are reviewed through VMF Research’s monthly, weekly or ad hoc publications. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and related financial instruments are highly volatile and speculative. They involve substantial market, liquidity, regulatory, technological, cybersecurity and custody risks and may result in a total loss of capital.
Disclosure of interests: legal entities controlled by Vasco Marques de Freitas hold long positions in listed ETFs providing economic exposure to Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. These holdings may benefit from increases in the value of the crypto-assets discussed and constitute financial interests and potential conflicts of interest.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own analysis and, where appropriate, consult an authorised financial adviser.