<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[VMF’s Market View: Leaderboard]]></title><description><![CDATA[Explore standout results from VMF Research’s published recommendations and the investment decisions behind them. Each dated update presents a selected Top 10. The figures describe individual recommendations, not the performance of a complete Model Portfolio.]]></description><link>https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/s/leaderboard</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Cxuu!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e3bda52-aec1-48cd-a222-343b24cbbab6_400x400.jpeg</url><title>VMF’s Market View: Leaderboard</title><link>https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/s/leaderboard</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2026 14:12:43 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Vasco Marques de Freitas]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[vascomarquesdefreitas@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[vascomarquesdefreitas@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Vasco Marques de Freitas]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Vasco Marques de Freitas]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[vascomarquesdefreitas@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[vascomarquesdefreitas@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Vasco Marques de Freitas]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[The Treasury Blinked. Our Leaderboard Noticed.]]></title><description><![CDATA[VMF Research - Top 10 Positions - September 2nd 2026]]></description><link>https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-treasury-blinked-our-leaderboard</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-treasury-blinked-our-leaderboard</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Vasco Marques de Freitas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 03 Sep 2026 11:31:40 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1JoQ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F52dc5eb3-dcf8-45fd-aef7-d8f213e9e475_1220x2008.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Two months ago, when we last updated the <a href="https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/gold-steps-back-biotech-steps-forward">VMF Research Leaderboard</a>, precious metals had lost momentum.</p><p>Biotechnology was moving forward. New pockets of strength were beginning to emerge. And the composition of our Top 10 was changing with them.</p><p>Markets have rotated again.</p><p>With prices through September 2, the <strong>Debasement Trade has come roaring back. </strong></p><h2><strong>Here&#8217;s our updated Top 10 Positions - September 2nd 2026:</strong></h2><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/A0PnZ/2/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/52dc5eb3-dcf8-45fd-aef7-d8f213e9e475_1220x2008.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/21edc778-8b85-4d7f-8ce2-88392af29f46_1220x2008.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:1039,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Created with Datawrapper&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/A0PnZ/2/" width="730" height="1039" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p><strong>Junior gold miners</strong> are now showing a 198% total return from our original reference price. Altius Minerals is sitting at roughly the same level. Senior gold miners are up 177%. Silver is back above 100%. And our broader metals and mining exposure has returned to the Top 10.</p><p>Quite a reversal from July.</p><p>But the more interesting development is not simply that gold-related assets are working again.</p><p>It is <strong>why they may be working again</strong>.</p><p>Earlier this year, we introduced what we called the <strong><a href="https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/t/taco">TACO Zone</a></strong>: the region in long-term Treasury yields where rising borrowing costs would stop being merely a market price and begin interfering with Washington&#8217;s own agenda.</p><div><hr></div><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;655914b5-01df-4daa-91cf-3a1588fa96c2&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;The following analysis is based on the weekly update released on March 21, 2026.&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:null,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;showDescription&quot;:true,&quot;showImage&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;lg&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The T.A.C.O. Framework: How to Spot a Trump Pivot Before Energy Shocks Mutate Into a Growth Crisis&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:272746453,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Vasco Marques de Freitas&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Investor, Entrepreneur. Founder of VMF Research, delivering institutional-grade research tailored for self-directed investors.&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5ea23a8-93ef-461f-b210-c4dc8b5a62f2_1243x1243.jpeg&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:null}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2026-03-25T17:54:29.559Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8E8j!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6cbdfbd5-811f-4f2c-be35-65eea511748b_1164x795.png&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-taco-framework-how-to-spot-a-trump-pivot&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:&quot;&#128240; Weekly Pulse&quot;,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:192120218,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:1,&quot;comment_count&quot;:0,&quot;publication_id&quot;:6379834,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;VMF's Market View&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Cxuu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e3bda52-aec1-48cd-a222-343b24cbbab6_400x400.jpeg&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><p>We later showed how movements in the long end had already proved remarkably useful in anticipating changes in the Administration&#8217;s behaviour.</p><div><hr></div><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;755e8c06-f8a1-45ab-b1d6-221fa6eadf08&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;This Weekly Update was first published for Tier One subscribers on 25 July 2026.&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:null,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;showDescription&quot;:true,&quot;showImage&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;lg&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The Treasury Yield Signals That Predicted Trump&#8217;s Ceasefire&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:272746453,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Vasco Marques de Freitas&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Investor, Entrepreneur. Founder of VMF Research, delivering institutional-grade research tailored for self-directed investors.&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5ea23a8-93ef-461f-b210-c4dc8b5a62f2_1243x1243.jpeg&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:null}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2026-07-27T13:02:45.648Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b068c854-a5db-4b8b-a154-a980fedbdebc_1448x1086.png&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/3-treasury-yield-signals-that-predicted&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:&quot;&#128240; Weekly Pulse&quot;,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:208675667,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:11,&quot;comment_count&quot;:0,&quot;publication_id&quot;:6379834,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;VMF's Market View&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Cxuu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e3bda52-aec1-48cd-a222-343b24cbbab6_400x400.jpeg&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><p>In August, however, the test became much more consequential.</p><p>The 30-year Treasury yield pushed through the area we had been watching.</p><p>And Treasury responded.</p><p>Beginning in September, liquidity-support buybacks in the 10-to-30-year part of the curve are being increased.</p><p>Now, let us be precise...</p><p>This is not QE. It is not yield-curve control (at least, not yet).</p><p>And the amounts involved are tiny relative to a Treasury market measured in tens of trillions of dollars.</p><p>But we think focusing on the amount risks missing the message.</p><p><strong>The long bond produced a policy response.</strong></p><p>That is what we wanted to know.</p><p>The TACO Zone was never about finding one magical yield at which Washington would suddenly panic. It was about identifying the point at which price would begin to influence behaviour.</p><p>Bessent and the Treasury have now given us the first important answer.</p><p>Their tolerance for restrictive conditions at the long end is not unlimited.</p><p>And, almost immediately, several of the assets we would expect to respond to that signal began doing exactly that.</p><p>Gold strengthened. Silver strengthened. Miners strengthened. Bitcoin strengthened. Ethereum strengthened.</p><p>Different assets. Different forms of scarcity. Different sensitivities.</p><p>But increasingly, the same message.</p><p>That also brings us back to another thesis we have been developing publicly for months:</p><p><strong>The Dovish Shock.</strong></p><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;c47781fd-67a8-4c8c-a04d-a7cf5210723b&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;Headlines are a poor compass.&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:null,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;showDescription&quot;:true,&quot;showImage&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;lg&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The Setup for a Dovish Shock&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:272746453,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Vasco Marques de Freitas&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Investor, Entrepreneur. Founder of VMF Research, delivering institutional-grade research tailored for self-directed investors.&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5ea23a8-93ef-461f-b210-c4dc8b5a62f2_1243x1243.jpeg&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:null}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2026-06-17T10:21:20.639Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hQY7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd93d626c-0a4c-4601-acef-efb533aa61d7_1254x1254.png&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-setup-for-a-dovish-shock&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:null,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:202404636,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:4,&quot;comment_count&quot;:0,&quot;publication_id&quot;:6379834,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;VMF's Market View&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Cxuu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e3bda52-aec1-48cd-a222-343b24cbbab6_400x400.jpeg&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><p>From the beginning, our argument has been more nuanced than simply forecasting rate cuts.</p><p>Kevin Warsh does not need to become a dove.</p><p>He does not need to abandon his inflation-fighting credentials.</p><p>And he certainly does not need to engineer an emergency easing cycle.</p><p>The hurdle is much lower.</p><p>Policy merely needs to prove <strong>less restrictive than markets have already discounted</strong>.</p><p>Until recently, that thesis depended heavily on the Federal Reserve.</p><p>It no longer does.</p><p>Treasury has moved first.</p><p>And that is why the return of the Debasement Trade to our Leaderboard deserves more attention than another rally in precious metals.</p><p>The higher-beta parts of the complex are now doing particularly well. Junior miners have pushed back towards the top of the table. Altius is again approaching a triple. Silver has recovered strongly. Metals and mining have re-entered the Top 10.</p><p>The market appears to be travelling further out along the scarcity curve.</p><p>Crypto may be next.</p><p>It still does not appear in our Leaderboard.</p><p>We find that rather interesting.</p><p>A substantial part of the original asymmetry in gold, silver and miners has already been realised. Some of those positions have doubled. Some have been partially monetised. The trade has paid us handsomely.</p><p>Crypto is in a very different place.</p><p>The correction left technical damage behind. Sentiment remains far less enthusiastic. Bitcoin and Ethereum are only now beginning to repair their longer-term structures.</p><p>Yet the backdrop surrounding them is improving.</p><p>If Warsh eventually follows the Treasury... not by capitulating, but simply by proving less hawkish than the market expects... then some of our crypto exposures sit directly in the transmission channel.</p><p>And the next Leaderboard could look very different.</p><p>Our broader view on gold and crypto has always been that investors are asking the wrong question when they insist on choosing between them.</p><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;1a75c255-1d23-4eaa-b1ef-86d8f841ed1b&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;The most important hypothesis we are testing right now is also one of the most consequential for portfolios: the market may be preparing for the wrong monetary shock.&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:null,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;showDescription&quot;:true,&quot;showImage&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;lg&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The Only Assets That Owe You Nothing&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:272746453,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Vasco Marques de Freitas&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Investor, Entrepreneur. Founder of VMF Research, delivering institutional-grade research tailored for self-directed investors.&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5ea23a8-93ef-461f-b210-c4dc8b5a62f2_1243x1243.jpeg&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:null}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2026-07-03T08:55:34.999Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wG7e!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd6566a7-d899-46e7-8c56-e1f301ac8db7_1122x1402.png&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-only-assets-that-owe-you-nothing&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:null,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:204800272,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:10,&quot;comment_count&quot;:0,&quot;publication_id&quot;:6379834,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;VMF's Market View&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Cxuu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e3bda52-aec1-48cd-a222-343b24cbbab6_400x400.jpeg&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><p>They represent different forms of scarcity.</p><p>They perform different jobs.</p><p>And in the right monetary environment, there is no reason both cannot work.</p><p>Meanwhile, just beneath the Top 10, something else is happening.</p><p>And it has almost nothing to do with Bessent, Treasury buybacks or the price of gold.</p><p>Our biotechnology theses are beginning to come alive.</p><p>Regular readers will know that this is not a new fascination.</p><p>Earlier this summer, we argued that one of the most interesting consequences of cheaper intelligence could emerge in industries where the cost of getting things wrong remains enormous.</p><p>Biotechnology fits that description unusually well.</p><p>Drug development is expensive. Failure rates are high. Clinical evidence is difficult to generate. Regulatory approval cannot be automated away. And modest improvements in the probability of success can create enormous economic value.</p><p>That was the premise behind our broader work on what we called <strong>The Intelligence Dividend</strong>.</p><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;f8158e20-ec14-4c4b-802e-37b6aa8fe759&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;Intelligence is getting cheaper. Failure remains brutally expensive.&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:null,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;showDescription&quot;:true,&quot;showImage&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;lg&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The Intelligence Dividend&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:272746453,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Vasco Marques de Freitas&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Investor, Entrepreneur. Founder of VMF Research, delivering institutional-grade research tailored for self-directed investors.&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5ea23a8-93ef-461f-b210-c4dc8b5a62f2_1243x1243.jpeg&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:null}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2026-07-22T19:45:23.767Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_7La!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F56f47b4e-84a9-473a-998f-2c82062637ab_1448x1086.png&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-intelligence-dividend&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:null,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:208105019,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:7,&quot;comment_count&quot;:0,&quot;publication_id&quot;:6379834,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;VMF's Market View&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Cxuu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e3bda52-aec1-48cd-a222-343b24cbbab6_400x400.jpeg&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><p>We subsequently took that framework into two very different company-level investment cases.</p><p>One centred on a scientific discovery engine built around scarce biological evidence.</p><p>The other on a capital-light royalty model capable of participating in successful medicines without bearing the full economics of discovering them.</p><p>We are now making both of those pieces (originally published for paying subscribers) freely available as part of a broader release of selected research from behind the paywall:</p><div><hr></div><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;b9e5a8c1-7061-4d22-a490-00a07f2b23c6&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;The most valuable AI asset in biotechnology cannot be downloaded.&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:null,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;showDescription&quot;:true,&quot;showImage&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;lg&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The Discovery Machine&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:272746453,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Vasco Marques de Freitas&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Investor, Entrepreneur. Founder of VMF Research, delivering institutional-grade research tailored for self-directed investors.&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5ea23a8-93ef-461f-b210-c4dc8b5a62f2_1243x1243.jpeg&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:null}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2026-07-29T18:40:28.606Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3f5926c3-47c6-4267-b2c0-446d09ef1616_1672x941.png&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-discovery-machine&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:null,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:208999574,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:7,&quot;comment_count&quot;:0,&quot;publication_id&quot;:6379834,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;VMF's Market View&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Cxuu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e3bda52-aec1-48cd-a222-343b24cbbab6_400x400.jpeg&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><div><hr></div><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;0d597c4b-1240-4c66-8527-8665226e4104&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;Discovery captures the imagination.&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:null,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;showDescription&quot;:true,&quot;showImage&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;lg&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The Royalty Engine&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:272746453,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Vasco Marques de Freitas&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Investor, Entrepreneur. Founder of VMF Research, delivering institutional-grade research tailored for self-directed investors.&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5ea23a8-93ef-461f-b210-c4dc8b5a62f2_1243x1243.jpeg&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:null}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2026-07-31T09:28:22.171Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BkNv!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F57d9dfa8-6295-49f3-8b20-cd9fd55feacb_1448x1086.png&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-royalty-engine&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:null,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:209227461,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:7,&quot;comment_count&quot;:0,&quot;publication_id&quot;:6379834,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;VMF's Market View&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Cxuu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e3bda52-aec1-48cd-a222-343b24cbbab6_400x400.jpeg&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><p>Neither position has yet earned a place in the Top 10.</p><p>They are not alone.</p><p>And that is perhaps the most useful way to think about the Leaderboard.</p><p>It shows what has already worked.</p><p>It does not show the much larger group competing to get there.</p><p>Today, precious metals and real assets are once again dominating the visible table. Crypto may become the next beneficiary if the policy signal broadens. Biotechnology is beginning to build momentum for completely different reasons. And elsewhere across our product roster, several other positions are quietly moving closer to the threshold.</p><p>That is exactly what we want.</p><p>Not ten versions of the same macro bet.</p><p>But different sources of asymmetry, across different asset classes and different investment theses, capable of coming alive at different moments.</p><p>The public Leaderboard shows the winners once they have earned their place.</p><p><strong>Subscribers get to see the race before the names appear on the board.</strong></p><p>And, more importantly, they get to understand why we entered it in the first place.</p><p><strong>Good Investing!</strong></p><p>- Vasco</p><p></p><div><hr></div><h2>Important Disclosure</h2><p>This article was produced by Vasco Marques de Freitas, CFA, CMT, Founder and CEO of VMF Research, Lda. It contains general investment research and market commentary and may include investment recommendations or information suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 on market abuse and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958. VMF Research&#8217;s activity as a producer of investment recommendations is subject to the applicable European market-abuse framework and to supervision by the Comiss&#227;o do Mercado de Valores Mobili&#225;rios (CMVM) in Portugal.</p><p>This article is not personalised investment advice and has not been prepared by reference to any reader&#8217;s investment objectives, financial circumstances, knowledge, experience, liquidity requirements or tolerance for risk. References to previous recommendations, Model Portfolio positions, market scenarios or possible future Leaderboard entrants should be understood in the context of the research and investment horizons described in the relevant publications. Views may change as market conditions and evidence evolve and are reviewed through VMF Research&#8217;s monthly, weekly or ad hoc publications.</p><p><strong>Research cut-off:</strong> 2 September 2026, following the close of the relevant markets.<br><strong>First dissemination:</strong> 3 September 2026.</p><p>The Leaderboard is a selective presentation of VMF Research&#8217;s ten highest-returning recommendations across its paid publications and is not a complete record of its recommendations or Model Portfolio performance. Returns are measured from the original published reference price to the applicable exit price for closed positions or the relevant market price for positions that remain wholly or partially open. Unless otherwise stated, reported returns include recorded cash distributions and exclude taxes, transaction costs, custody charges, bid&#8211;ask spreads and foreign-exchange effects. The status column identifies positions that remain open, have been closed or have been partially realised. Displayed returns do not represent returns earned by clients or subscribers and should not be interpreted as the performance of an investable fund or managed account.</p><p>VMF Research&#8217;s Model Portfolios are illustrative research portfolios. They do not represent client assets, personalised mandates or transactions executed by VMF Research. References to the TACO Zone, the Dovish Shock, Treasury or Federal Reserve policy, precious metals, crypto assets, biotechnology and potential future market outcomes reflect research hypotheses, interpretations and forward-looking judgments that may not materialise. Linked articles were prepared at their respective original research dates and should be read together with the methodologies, assumptions, principal risks and disclosures contained in those publications.</p><p><strong>Disclosure of interests:</strong> as at the research cut-off, legal entities controlled by the author hold long positions in Altius Minerals Corporation and the ARK Innovation ETF and hold long economic exposure to Bitcoin, Ether and Solana through listed exchange-traded products. These interests may create actual, potential or perceived conflicts and should be considered when evaluating the analysis. Interests may change after the stated disclosure date. Neither VMF Research nor the author received compensation from any issuer discussed in connection with the preparation of this article, and no issuer reviewed, approved or amended its investment conclusions before first dissemination.</p><p>Equities, precious-metals and mining securities, biotechnology investments, innovation-focused ETFs and crypto assets can be highly volatile and may result in the loss of some or all invested capital. Past performance, Model Portfolio performance and previously successful recommendations are not reliable indicators of future results. Readers remain responsible for conducting their own analysis and, where appropriate, should consult an authorised financial intermediary or adviser before making any investment decision.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Gold Steps Back. Biotech Steps Forward]]></title><description><![CDATA[VMF Research - Top 10 Positions - July 3rd 2026]]></description><link>https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/gold-steps-back-biotech-steps-forward</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/gold-steps-back-biotech-steps-forward</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Vasco Marques de Freitas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2026 16:05:40 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CRDi!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F217c7011-5ded-4a79-a682-2fc13e1a391b_1220x1944.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A good Leaderboard should not remain static.</p><p>Markets change. Leadership rotates. And the strongest investment processes should capture that evolution before it becomes obvious.</p><p>That is precisely what is happening inside VMF Research&#8217;s latest<strong> Top 10 Positions, with prices as of July 2, 2026.</strong></p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qpjal/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/217c7011-5ded-4a79-a682-2fc13e1a391b_1220x1944.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/34576074-0977-4b2b-a061-88b645b9fee1_1220x1944.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:1042,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;[ Insert title here ]&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Create interactive, responsive &amp; beautiful charts &#8212; no code required.&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qpjal/1/" width="730" height="1042" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p></p><p>Our precious-metals complex has lost momentum.</p><p>Physical gold has now dropped out of the Top 10, while junior gold miners, senior miners, and silver have moved lower in the ranking.</p><p>That does not invalidate the original thesis.</p><p>Far from it.</p><p>The <em>Debasement Trade</em> has already rewarded us handsomely, and we crystallized partial profits after several of those positions doubled.</p><p>But while precious metals have been consolidating, other parts of our <em><a href="https://www.vmfresearch.com/our-publications">Model Portfolios</a></em> have been gaining material traction.</p><p>And the strength is increasingly broad-based.</p><p>Royalties.</p><p>Disruptive innovation.</p><p>Spin-offs.</p><p>Healthcare.</p><p>Biotechnology.</p><p>One sector, however, is beginning to stand out.</p><h2>Biotech is moving to the front</h2><p>Biotechnology now occupies three very different places in our public Leaderboard.</p><p>Grail remains in first place, with a closed return of <strong>272%</strong>.</p><p>Roivant Sciences has climbed to third place and is now showing a <strong>215%</strong> return while the position remains open.</p><p>And SBIO, our broader exposure to medical-breakthrough companies, has entered the Top 10 with a <strong>79%</strong> gain.</p><p>One individual winner could be dismissed as fortunate security selection.</p><p>Two would be harder to ignore.</p><p>But strength across a closed position, a live individual stock, and a diversified sector vehicle begins to look like something more meaningful:</p><p><strong>A theme gaining traction.</strong></p><p>That is why we took particular interest in recent comments from <em>Dario Amodei</em>, Anthropic&#8217;s founder and CEO.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yuqI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5d48737-d766-4fa9-8b1f-d90b88782984_1463x1343.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yuqI!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5d48737-d766-4fa9-8b1f-d90b88782984_1463x1343.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yuqI!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5d48737-d766-4fa9-8b1f-d90b88782984_1463x1343.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yuqI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5d48737-d766-4fa9-8b1f-d90b88782984_1463x1343.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yuqI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5d48737-d766-4fa9-8b1f-d90b88782984_1463x1343.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yuqI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5d48737-d766-4fa9-8b1f-d90b88782984_1463x1343.png" width="1456" height="1337" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f5d48737-d766-4fa9-8b1f-d90b88782984_1463x1343.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1337,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:889233,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/i/205067127?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5d48737-d766-4fa9-8b1f-d90b88782984_1463x1343.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yuqI!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5d48737-d766-4fa9-8b1f-d90b88782984_1463x1343.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yuqI!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5d48737-d766-4fa9-8b1f-d90b88782984_1463x1343.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yuqI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5d48737-d766-4fa9-8b1f-d90b88782984_1463x1343.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yuqI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5d48737-d766-4fa9-8b1f-d90b88782984_1463x1343.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image buttonBase-GK1x3M"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon-noB79L"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image buttonBase-GK1x3M"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2 icon-noB79L"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source: Financial Times, June 30 2026</figcaption></figure></div><p>Amodei described himself as positive on biotechnology and argued that the sector may be approaching an AI-driven renaissance. His conviction is that artificial intelligence could accelerate progress across areas such as peptide therapies, cell-based treatments, and programmable biology.</p><p>That is remarkably close to the premise behind our original investment thesis.</p><p>Biology is extraordinarily complex.</p><p>Drug discovery is expensive, slow, and burdened by enormous failure rates.</p><p>But it is also unusually well suited to the capabilities AI is beginning to develop: pattern recognition, simulation, optimization, adaptive experimentation, and the ability to search vast design spaces far more efficiently than human researchers can manage alone.</p><p>We have believed for some time that biotechnology could become one of the most important application layers of artificial intelligence.</p><p>So, naturally, we welcome validation from one of the most important figures in the AI landscape.</p><p>But intellectual validation is not the kind that matters most in markets.</p><p><strong>Price validation is.</strong></p><p>And that is increasingly what our Model Portfolios are receiving.</p><p>Grail has already delivered an exceptional realized return.</p><p>Roivant continues to compound as an open position.</p><p>And the broader biotech complex is now demonstrating that the strength extends beyond a single company.</p><p>This is exactly how an investment theme should begin to reveal itself.</p><p>First through the thesis.</p><p>Then through individual securities.</p><p>And finally through broader market participation.</p><p>Biotech may be entering that third stage.</p><p>But it is far from the only area showing strength beneath the surface.</p><p>Our roster of possible new Leaderboard entrants remains extensive and spans several very different themes, sectors, geographies, and investment structures.</p><p>Some are already approaching the threshold.</p><p>Others remain earlier in their development.</p><p>The public leaderboard shows what has already worked.</p><p><a href="https://www.vmfresearch.com/our-publications">Subscribers see what may be coming next, and, more importantly, the research explaining why we believe the asymmetry exists before the market fully recognizes it.</a></p><p>There is a great deal happening beneath the Top 10.</p><p>Stay tuned.</p><p><strong>Good Investing!</strong></p><div><hr></div><p><em>New From Market View:</em></p><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;9c2f95d6-c26a-4709-9f51-dbcc649cb262&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;The most important hypothesis we are testing right now is also one of the most consequential for portfolios: the market may be preparing for the wrong monetary shock.&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:null,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;showDescription&quot;:true,&quot;showImage&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;sm&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The Only Assets That Owe You Nothing&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:272746453,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Vasco Marques de Freitas&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Investor, Entrepreneur. Founder of VMF Research, delivering institutional-grade research tailored for self-directed investors.&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5ea23a8-93ef-461f-b210-c4dc8b5a62f2_1243x1243.jpeg&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:null}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2026-07-03T08:55:35.000Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wG7e!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd6566a7-d899-46e7-8c56-e1f301ac8db7_1122x1402.png&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-only-assets-that-owe-you-nothing&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:null,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:204800272,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:5,&quot;comment_count&quot;:0,&quot;publication_id&quot;:6379834,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;VMF's Market View&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Cxuu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e3bda52-aec1-48cd-a222-343b24cbbab6_400x400.jpeg&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;5f64725f-1429-40ae-959d-714211aff901&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;A contrarian thesis is easy to admire before the market tests it.&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:null,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;showDescription&quot;:true,&quot;showImage&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;sm&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The Hike That May Never Come&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:272746453,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Vasco Marques de Freitas&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Investor, Entrepreneur. Founder of VMF Research, delivering institutional-grade research tailored for self-directed investors.&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5ea23a8-93ef-461f-b210-c4dc8b5a62f2_1243x1243.jpeg&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:null}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2026-06-29T07:30:33.748Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LBcw!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4108c8a9-2947-4dfe-b111-9699808afb60_1536x1024.png&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-hike-that-may-never-come&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:null,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:204036954,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:6,&quot;comment_count&quot;:0,&quot;publication_id&quot;:6379834,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;VMF's Market View&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Cxuu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e3bda52-aec1-48cd-a222-343b24cbbab6_400x400.jpeg&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><div><hr></div><h3><em>Important Disclosure</em></h3><p><em>This article contains general investment research and commentary produced by Vasco Marques de Freitas, CFA, CMT, Founder and CEO of VMF Research, Lda. It is not personalised investment advice and does not consider any reader&#8217;s individual objectives, financial circumstances or tolerance for risk. References to previous recommendations do not constitute a new recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument. The underlying views are reviewed through VMF Research&#8217;s monthly, weekly or ad hoc publications and may change as market conditions and evidence evolve.<br><br>The Leaderboard is a selective presentation of VMF Research&#8217;s ten highest-returning recommendations and is not a complete record of its recommendations or Model Portfolio performance. The information and prices are stated as of 2 July 2026, at the close of the relevant markets. Returns are measured from the original published reference price to the applicable exit price for closed positions or the relevant market price for open positions. The status column identifies positions that remain open, have been closed or have been partially realised. Displayed returns should not be interpreted as the realised or net return earned by any investor and do not reflect individual execution, fees, taxes or financial circumstances. The Model Portfolios are illustrative research portfolios and do not represent client assets or transactions executed by VMF Research. Equities, biotechnology, sector ETFs, commodity-related securities and innovation-focused investments can be highly volatile and may result in substantial losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own analysis and, where appropriate, consult an authorised financial adviser.</em></p><p><em><strong>Disclosure of interests:</strong> as of publication, legal entities controlled by the author hold long positions in Altius Minerals Corporation and ARK Innovation ETF. These interests may create potential conflicts and should be considered when evaluating the analysis.</em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[If You Only Own the Visible AI Hardware Stocks, You are Missing the Next Layer of the Megatrend]]></title><description><![CDATA[VMF Research - Top 10 Positions - May 2026]]></description><link>https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/if-you-only-own-the-visible-ai-hardware</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/if-you-only-own-the-visible-ai-hardware</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Vasco Marques de Freitas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2026 06:34:43 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0b9t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcca8bb61-947c-4eef-8e98-b6101d37006e_1220x1976.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Since our last Leaderboard update, our <a href="https://www.vmfresearch.com/our-publications">Model Portfolios</a> have shown remarkable strength.</p><h3><strong>VMF Research - Top 10 Positions - May 2026</strong></h3><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/W7fJL/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cca8bb61-947c-4eef-8e98-b6101d37006e_1220x1976.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0f973def-377b-4cb5-95e6-06630c7a82c0_1220x1976.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:1059,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;VMF Research - Top 10 Positions - May 2026&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;Create interactive, responsive &amp; beautiful charts &#8212; no code required.&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/W7fJL/1/" width="730" height="1059" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Strong enough, in fact, to make us act.</p><p><br>In May, in <em>VMF&#8217;s Strategic Asset Allocation</em>, we closed the remaining position in our South Korean equities tilt through <span class="cashtag-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;symbol&quot;:&quot;$EWY&quot;}" data-component-name="CashtagToDOM"></span> .<br><br><strong>Final result: +238%.</strong><br><br>That is not a typo.<br><br>A position that more than tripled in less than 18 months has now been fully exited.<br><br>And the reason is no mystery.<br><br>We have been writing about it both in front of and behind the paywall: the visible side of the AI Trade is getting crowded.<br><br>Semiconductors have gone parabolic.</p><p><br><strong>EWY&#8217;s </strong>heavy exposure to <strong>South Korea&#8217;s AI-linked hardware champions</strong> (including SK Hynix and Samsung) has been an extraordinary tailwind.<br><br>But markets have a way of changing character...<br><br>What begins as a differentiated thesis can eventually become consensus.<br>What begins as a powerful trend can turn into a crowded trade.<br>And what begins as opportunity can, at the wrong price and sentiment extreme, become risk.<br><br>Today, South Korean retail sentiment is showing the kind of euphoric, bubble-like behaviour that serious investors should not ignore.<br><br>So, we did not ignore it.<br>We closed the position.<br><br>To us, this was a textbook exit: a great thesis, a parabolic move, euphoric sentiment, and a return that had already exceeded even our more optimistic expectations.<br><br>But here is the important part:<br><br><strong>We are not abandoning AI.</strong><br><br>Far from it.<br><br>We are moving deeper into what we have been calling the <em>invisible AI Trade</em>.<br><br>The visible side of the AI Trade is easy to understand: chips, semiconductors, data centres, hardware, capex beneficiaries.<br><br>That trade has worked spectacularly.<br><br>But the market is now beginning to look beyond the buildout.<br><br>It is starting to ask a more important question:<br><br>Who actually benefits from the application of this technology?<br><br>That is where our focus has been shifting across VMF Research.<br><br>In April, we added exposure to the software sector through<strong> <span class="cashtag-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;symbol&quot;:&quot;$IGV&quot;}" data-component-name="CashtagToDOM"></span> </strong>, arguing that the market had gone too far in punishing high-quality software and workflow franchises.<br><br>A little more than a month and a half later, IGV is already up more than 30%.<br><br>And yet... it still has not made it into our public Leaderboard.<br><br>That tells you something.<br><br>The Leaderboard is not the research process.<br><br>It is the visible evidence of what the research process has already produced.<br><br>Beneath it, the next generation of potential outperformers is already being seeded.<br><br>Another fast-approaching contender is a special investment vehicle we selected in January to gain exposure to the potential<strong> IPOs of SpaceX</strong> and <strong>Anthropic.</strong><br><br>Back then, this was definitely not the fashionable trade.<br><br>Gold, miners, commodities, and the Debasement Trade were stealing most of the attention.<br><br>How times have changed.<br><br>The market now seems increasingly eager for these IPOs.<br><br>And this still-unnamed position may soon force its way into our very public Leaderboard.<br><br>That is the point.<br><br>A lot is happening inside our Model Portfolios.<br><br>We are taking profits where trades have become crowded.<br>We are pressing where asymmetry is improving.<br><br>And we are continuing to search for the most attractive risk/reward opportunities tied to the AI megatrend... especially where the market is starting to move beyond the obvious capex winners and toward the companies that may actually capture the value created by AI&#8217;s application layer.<br><br>The Leaderboard shows what has worked.<br><br>But the next outliers are usually born before they appear on any public table.<br><br>Stay tuned.</p><p>Vasco.</p><div class="callout-block" data-callout="true"><h4 style="text-align: center;"><strong>Beat the old playbook. Get institutional-grade research delivered to your inbox.</strong></h4><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p></div><p><em>From Market View:</em></p><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;b1be2ae0-9d77-4831-beea-119beb260c04&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;Markets leave fingerprints.&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:null,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;showDescription&quot;:true,&quot;showImage&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;sm&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;A Pattern Recognition Exercise&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:272746453,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Vasco Marques de Freitas&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Investor, Entrepreneur. Founder of VMF Research, delivering institutional-grade research tailored for self-directed investors.&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5ea23a8-93ef-461f-b210-c4dc8b5a62f2_1243x1243.jpeg&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:null}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2026-06-01T09:30:06.048Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!awgC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5391b4da-e617-4622-a23e-60e51943ca75_1295x658.png&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/a-pattern-recognition-exercise&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:null,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:200082466,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:6,&quot;comment_count&quot;:1,&quot;publication_id&quot;:6379834,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;VMF's Market View&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Cxuu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e3bda52-aec1-48cd-a222-343b24cbbab6_400x400.jpeg&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;16ade004-bb2c-4277-857b-b67c8449f441&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;For the past few months, we have been approaching China from the top down.&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:null,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;showDescription&quot;:true,&quot;showImage&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;sm&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;PDD: China Price, Temu Optionality.&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:272746453,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Vasco Marques de Freitas&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;Investor, Entrepreneur. Founder of VMF Research, delivering institutional-grade research tailored for self-directed investors.&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d5ea23a8-93ef-461f-b210-c4dc8b5a62f2_1243x1243.jpeg&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:null}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2026-05-26T18:12:38.203Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5df6c44b-d365-4571-98cc-e8d98f6f95a7_1200x630.png&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/pdd-china-price-temu-optionality&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:null,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:199296456,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:24,&quot;comment_count&quot;:7,&quot;publication_id&quot;:6379834,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;VMF's Market View&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Cxuu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e3bda52-aec1-48cd-a222-343b24cbbab6_400x400.jpeg&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><p></p><div><hr></div><p><em>Disclaimer: This is general information, not personalized investment advice. It&#8217;s not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Investing involves risk, and past performance doesn&#8217;t guarantee future results. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed/authorized professional who understands your objectives and risk profile.</em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Bottlenecks and outliers: How we are evolving the Debasement Trade for the AI Abundance Shock]]></title><description><![CDATA[VMF Research - Top 10 Positions - April 2026]]></description><link>https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/bottlenecks-and-outliers-how-we-are</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/bottlenecks-and-outliers-how-we-are</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Vasco Marques de Freitas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 08 May 2026 12:07:36 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!s-yC!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F788fd70d-3a66-420a-a735-c64f780bc6c2_1220x1976.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Since <a href="https://www.vmfresearch.com/">VMF Research&#8217;s</a> inaugural issues in May 2024, we have been positioned for one of the most important trades of this cycle:</p><p><strong>The Debasement Trade.</strong></p><p>Gold.<br>Silver.<br>Miners.<br>Real assets.<br>Scarce claims.<br>Selected geographies and companies positioned to benefit from a world of excess debt, record deficits, fiscal dominance, and monetary fragility.</p><p>That trade has worked.</p><p>Our updated Leaderboard makes that clear.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5kVb6/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/788fd70d-3a66-420a-a735-c64f780bc6c2_1220x1976.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3601a960-e84b-4ae2-ac00-d721bc79634a_1220x2046.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:1059,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;VMF Research - Top 10 Positions &#8211; April 2026&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5kVb6/1/" width="730" height="1059" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p>Several of our Top 10 positions are still direct expressions of that original thesis. Some have doubled. Some have tripled. Some have been partially monetized. Some remain open because we believe the story is not over.</p><p>But here is the more important point:</p><p><strong>The Debasement Trade is not dead.<br>But it is evolving.</strong></p><p>Why?</p><p>Because another secular force is now colliding with it:</p><p><strong>An Abundance Shock.</strong></p><p>AI is making intelligence cheaper. It is compressing tasks. It is lowering the cost of software creation, analysis, content, coding, and workflows.</p><p>But cheaper intelligence does not make the whole system cheap.</p><p>Quite the opposite.</p><p>In a world where more things can be copied, automated, and generated at near-zero marginal cost, what is truly scarce becomes even more important.</p><p>Power.<br>Compute.<br>Copyright.<br>Licensing.<br>Regulatory permission.<br>Trusted data.<br>Physical infrastructure.<br>Embedded workflows.<br>Cultural IP.<br>Tollbooths.</p><p>That was the real theme of our April publishing cycle.</p><p>In <em>VMF&#8217;s Strategic Asset Allocation</em>, we published <em>&#8220;The Great AI Washout&#8221;</em> - explaining why the market&#8217;s panic in high-quality software had gone too far.</p><p>In <em>VMF&#8217;s Security Selection</em>, we published <em>&#8220;The Best Seat in the House&#8221;</em> - presenting a royalty-like business built on scarce music rights.</p><p>And in <em>Alpha Tier</em>, we published <em>&#8220;Bottlenecks&#8221;</em> - tying it all together: the next winners may be the businesses that capture AI-driven abundance while sitting on scarce assets, rights, rails, or permissions.</p><p>The Leaderboard shows what has already worked.</p><p>But beneath it, we are already planting the next generation of potential outperformers.</p><p>Because in markets, yesterday&#8217;s winners matter.</p><p>But today&#8217;s bottlenecks may become tomorrow&#8217;s outliers.</p><p>Stay tuned.</p><p>Vasco</p><div class="callout-block" data-callout="true"><h4 style="text-align: center;">Beat the old playbook. Get institutional-grade research delivered to your inbox.</h4><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p></div><div><hr></div><p><em>Disclaimer: This is general information, not personalized investment advice. It&#8217;s not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Investing involves risk, and past performance doesn&#8217;t guarantee future results. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed/authorized professional who understands your objectives and risk profile</em>.&#8221;</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Leaderboard in a Risk-Off World]]></title><description><![CDATA[VMF Research - Top 10 Positions &#8211; March 2026]]></description><link>https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-leaderboard-in-a-risk-off-world</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-leaderboard-in-a-risk-off-world</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Vasco Marques de Freitas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 04 Apr 2026 07:30:46 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TkGq!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9acd87e4-ad6d-4929-b12c-5bfcab940a4a_1220x1976.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What a month this has been...<br><br>Financial markets are being ravaged by another serious risk-off wave, triggered by the <a href="https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-taco-framework-how-to-spot-a-trump-pivot">latest </a><em><a href="https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-taco-framework-how-to-spot-a-trump-pivot">Trumpquake</a></em><a href="https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-taco-framework-how-to-spot-a-trump-pivot">: the war in Iran.</a> </p><p>Risk assets have been hit hard, macro narratives have been thrown back into flux, and investors are being reminded, yet again, that in true crisis eras, history does not move in a straight line. It lurches. It shocks. And when it does, assumptions that had seemed stable only days earlier suddenly begin to look fragile, conditional, and open to renegotiations.<br><br>Throughout March, across the entire product roster at <a href="https://www.vmfresearch.com/">VMF Research</a>, we have done far more than simply react to the headlines.<br><br>We have gone deep into this event, not just its immediate market implications, but its possible historical meaning. </p><p>In <em><a href="https://www.vmfresearch.com/our-publications">Alpha Tier</a></em>, for instance, we asked whether this war in Iran could become America&#8217;s Suez Crisis of 1956. Not because history repeats mechanically. Not because every geopolitical rupture deserves imperial comparisons. </p><p>But because moments like these can reveal far more than investors first assume. They can expose strategic weakness, test credibility, and accelerate transitions that were already underway.<br><br>And, as always, we did not stop at analysis.<br><br>We adjusted our Model Portfolios.<br><br>In <em><a href="https://www.vmfresearch.com/">VMF&#8217;s Strategic Asset Allocation</a></em>, we added a new position with heavy exposure to the Fourth Turning dynamics we have been writing about so extensively. In <em><a href="https://www.vmfresearch.com/">VMF&#8217;s Security Selection</a></em>, we added a <em>crypto Tollbooth</em> specifically designed to benefit from what we believe may be the anatomy of this big cycle&#8217;s monetary reset. In other words, we are not merely trying to describe the world that may be emerging. We are trying to position for it.<br><br>That brings us to the <em>Leaderboard</em>.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dzjLA/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9acd87e4-ad6d-4929-b12c-5bfcab940a4a_1220x1976.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a0c76289-7a31-44e6-8b0a-2f4b288283aa_1220x2046.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:1059,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;VMF Research - Top 10 Positions &#8211; March 2026&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dzjLA/1/" width="730" height="1059" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p><br>At first glance, the Top 10 has not changed much. </p><p>The same broad themes remain in command. The same core positions continue to tell the story. </p><p>But just below that Top 10, some of our energy-linked positions are now vying for a place among the leaders. That is worth watching closely. In an environment increasingly shaped by war, chokepoints, and strategic scarcity, energy can very quickly move from supporting actor to central character.<br><br>At the same time, the drawdowns we are seeing in several other positions are a useful reminder that rigorous risk management is not optional.<br><br>It never is.<br><br>We have positions that have left the Top 10, such as ARK Innovation - <span class="cashtag-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;symbol&quot;:&quot;$ARKK&quot;}" data-component-name="CashtagToDOM"></span>  , but where the process still worked exactly as intended because we exited half the position when it doubled. </p><p>That matters. In a volatile market, the path of a position matters almost as much as the final outcome. Booking gains, cutting exposure, and refusing to let a winning trade become a round trip is part of the discipline required to navigate a true crisis era.<br><br>But perhaps most important of all is this: in the middle of so much pessimism, we are finding unique pockets of opportunity.<br><br>Particularly in the Quality Risk Factor.<br><br>That is where some of the most interesting mispricings now appear to be emerging. High-quality franchises, with durable economics and strong competitive positions, are increasingly being priced like average businesses... or in some cases, even worse. That is the sort of setup serious investors should pay attention to. Because when fear becomes indiscriminate, quality often goes on sale with everything else.<br><br>There is, quite simply, a lot going on.</p><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Beat the old playbook. Get institutional-grade research delivered to your inbox.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p></p><div><hr></div><p>A serious geopolitical rupture. A market under pressure. A Leaderboard that remains more resilient than many might expect. Energy-linked positions pressing upward. Fresh evidence of why risk management matters. </p><p>And, beneath the surface, some very interesting opportunities beginning to emerge.<br></p><p>Stay tuned.</p><p>Vasco</p><p></p><p></p><div><hr></div><p><em>Disclaimer: This is general information, not personalized investment advice. It&#8217;s not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Investing involves risk, and past performance doesn&#8217;t guarantee future results. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed/authorized professional who understands your objectives and risk profile.&#8221;</em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The market isn’t “up” or “down” right now, it's splitting apart.]]></title><description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s splitting apart.]]></description><link>https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-market-isnt-up-or-down-right</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/the-market-isnt-up-or-down-right</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Vasco Marques de Freitas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 21 Feb 2026 18:11:02 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wctL!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd256e0c3-71c9-4ecf-b901-0879cd010eff_1220x1976.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One corner rips higher on a single headline. </p><p>Another gets crushed on the very same day. </p><p>Stocks that used to trade like a basket are suddenly behaving like strangers.  Commodities that &#8220;should&#8221; move together are diverging. </p><p>And investors are learning (again) the sober reality: <strong>there is no such thing as &#8220;the market.&#8221; There are only regimes&#8230; and risk management.</strong></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!m-JX!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed7ab8f3-af29-4f81-98ca-6bbd78d44472_1080x1080.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!m-JX!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed7ab8f3-af29-4f81-98ca-6bbd78d44472_1080x1080.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!m-JX!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed7ab8f3-af29-4f81-98ca-6bbd78d44472_1080x1080.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!m-JX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed7ab8f3-af29-4f81-98ca-6bbd78d44472_1080x1080.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!m-JX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed7ab8f3-af29-4f81-98ca-6bbd78d44472_1080x1080.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!m-JX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed7ab8f3-af29-4f81-98ca-6bbd78d44472_1080x1080.png" width="1080" height="1080" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ed7ab8f3-af29-4f81-98ca-6bbd78d44472_1080x1080.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1080,&quot;width&quot;:1080,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2427325,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/i/188730574?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed7ab8f3-af29-4f81-98ca-6bbd78d44472_1080x1080.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!m-JX!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed7ab8f3-af29-4f81-98ca-6bbd78d44472_1080x1080.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!m-JX!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed7ab8f3-af29-4f81-98ca-6bbd78d44472_1080x1080.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!m-JX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed7ab8f3-af29-4f81-98ca-6bbd78d44472_1080x1080.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!m-JX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed7ab8f3-af29-4f81-98ca-6bbd78d44472_1080x1080.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image buttonBase-GK1x3M"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon-noB79L"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image buttonBase-GK1x3M"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2 icon-noB79L"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>That&#8217;s why we keep a public Leaderboard. </p><p>Not as a victory lap&#8230; but as a reality check.</p><p>Because in markets like this, the only thing that matters is whether your framework survives the noise and whether your Market View keeps showing up in prices.</p><p>Here&#8217;s the updated <strong>Top 10</strong> across our product roster, with prices through <strong>February 18</strong>:</p><h3><strong>VMF Research&#8217;s Top 10 Positions - February 18th, 2026</strong></h3><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9iufR/5/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d256e0c3-71c9-4ecf-b901-0879cd010eff_1220x1976.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2a0024a8-e6d8-48c2-bbd9-c121f1f14795_1220x1976.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:1022,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;VMF Research's Top 10 Positions - February 18th, 2026&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9iufR/5/" width="730" height="1022" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" loading="lazy"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><div><hr></div><p>A few things jump out.</p><p>First, <strong>dispersion is accelerating</strong>. Some positions kept compounding (the miners). </p><p>Some cooled off (silver). </p><p>Some quietly powered higher while the crowd stayed distracted (Korea). </p><p>Some held steady while &#8220;certainty&#8221; got repriced every week (gold). </p><p>That&#8217;s what regime-change markets do: they don&#8217;t hand out broad, easy wins. They <strong>separate narratives from fundamentals&#8230; and tourists from professionals.</strong></p><p>Second, the leaderboard is still dominated by the same big macro pillars we&#8217;ve been writing about.</p><p>Because the world is being hit by <strong>waves of uncertainty</strong> on three fronts... and each wave is forcing capital to move fast.</p><p>One wave is geopolitical. </p><p>The &#8220;rules-based&#8221; era is cracking. Alliances are shifting. Supply chains are being redesigned with politics in mind, not efficiency. And if you&#8217;ve been following our <a href="https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/navigating-the-final-stretch-of-the?">Fourth Turning framework</a>, none of this is surprising. </p><p>What&#8217;s surprising is how quickly it&#8217;s becoming visible in prices. In a Fourth Turning, markets stop rewarding comfort stories. They start rewarding <strong>resilience, real assets, and strategic leverage to the new order.</strong></p><p>The second wave is liquidity.</p><p>Investors want simple answers to simple questions: Who runs the next liquidity cycle, and what do they do with the Fed&#8217;s balance sheet and the market&#8217;s plumbing? </p><p>Right now, there&#8217;s decent visibility on the first part (Kevin Warsh). But there&#8217;s far less visibility on the second. And in markets, uncertainty is often hated more than the actual bad news.<br><br>Call the next regime tighter, looser, or simply different... it doesn&#8217;t matter.</p><p> What matters is this: the future path of liquidity is becoming the only variable that truly moves the tape. </p><p>So, is it any surprise that the most liquidity-sensitive assets are the ones struggling the most? Think crypto.<br></p><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Beat the old playbook. Get institutional-grade research delivered to your inbox.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><p></p><p>That&#8217;s why we keep hammering the same message: watch liquidity like a hawk. It&#8217;s the tide underneath everything.</p><p>And then there&#8217;s the third wave&#8230; the one gripping markets the hardest over the last week:<br><br>Disruptive innovation.<br><br>Not the buzzword version. The real version, the one where new AI models don&#8217;t just improve productivity&#8230; they change competitive moats. </p><p>This is where dispersion turns violent. </p><p>Because AI doesn&#8217;t hit &#8220;tech&#8221;, or the broader economic fabric, evenly. It hits business models. It hits pricing power. It hits labour economics. It hits distribution. It hits who owns the customer relationship. And it slashes the cost of creating &#8220;good enough&#8221; software, content, and services.<br><br>In other words, the winners won&#8217;t be &#8220;AI companies&#8221; in the abstract. </p><p>The winners will be the companies that can turn AI into margin expansion, faster innovation cycles, and durable customer lock-in&#8230; while the losers wake up to find their moat has evaporated.</p><p>That&#8217;s why our work has been so intense over the last few weeks. Because in a market like this, the only edge that matters is having a framework for uncertainty... and then translating it into positioning.</p><p>If you&#8217;re reading this outside our paywall, here&#8217;s the honest truth.</p><p>The public leaderboard shows outcomes. </p><p>Behind the paywall you&#8217;ll find what actually matters: our takes on each of these three uncertainty waves <strong>and</strong> the actionable insights that come from them, including how we&#8217;re sizing risk, where we&#8217;re taking partial profits (the &#8220;closed half at double&#8221; part), and what we believe is setting up next as dispersion keeps widening.</p><p>This is not a market for passive narratives.</p><p>It&#8217;s a market for clear thinking&#8230; and decisive action.</p><p>Good investing,<br>VMF</p><div><hr></div><p><em>Disclaimer: This is general information, not personalized investment advice. It&#8217;s not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Investing involves risk, and past performance doesn&#8217;t guarantee future results. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed/authorized professional who understands your objectives and risk profile.&#8221;</em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[It’s not just the returns. It’s also the position sizing.]]></title><description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s not just the returns. It&#8217;s also the position sizing.]]></description><link>https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/top-10-positions-closing-january</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://marketview.vmfresearch.com/p/top-10-positions-closing-january</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Vasco Marques de Freitas]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 19 Jan 2026 08:00:08 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hQtP!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b2afc72-0374-4ba5-bc78-a07cdc549172_1220x2088.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>2026 has started on a strong note across all our VMF Research Model Portfolios. </p><p>&#128204; Here&#8217;s our Leaderboard as of January 15, 2026.</p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qTjKR/7/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3b2afc72-0374-4ba5-bc78-a07cdc549172_1220x2088.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/97363abc-48e9-4b83-97d8-8ed57ff0aff0_1220x2158.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:1118,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;VMF Research's Top 10 Positions - January 15th, 2026&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/qTjKR/7/" width="730" height="1118" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p><br>What makes these numbers even more meaningful ? </p><p>We only started publishing in May 2024. In such a short time frame, the market has been rotating, aggressively, toward the Market View we&#8217;ve been holding since day one.<br><br>But here&#8217;s what matters most: <br>&#128204; It&#8217;s not just the returns. It&#8217;s also the position sizing. <br><br>Gold, for instance, started as a 10% position across several portfolios, and silver as a 5% allocation in our Alpha Tier Model Portfolio. <br><br>Now look at what +91% in gold and +197% in silver mean when they&#8217;re applied to positions of that size. <br><br>These weren&#8217;t &#8220;tiny dart throws.&#8221; They were core building blocks... by design, not by accident.<br><br>Why? Because if this really is a Fourth Turning, monetary reset dynamics don&#8217;t stay theoretical for long. They show up in prices.<br><br>Now, the other side of the coin&#8230;<br><br>A few of these themes are becoming mainstream. <br><br>They&#8217;re driving FOMO (fear of missing out) not only among retail investors, but increasingly among institutional players as well. That&#8217;s exactly why we invite you to explore our work in more depth... because we believe major rotations are still brewing in global markets, and 2026 is likely to be extremely volatile.<br><br>&#128204;Inside <strong><a href="https://www.vmfresearch.com/?substack">VMF Research</a></strong>, you&#8217;ll find many more themes represented in our Model Portfolios, and some may soon dominate this leaderboard. Several are just as contrarian and out-of-the-box today as silver was when we started our journey.<br><br>Good investing.</p><div><hr></div><p><em>Disclaimer: This is general information, not personalized investment advice. It&#8217;s not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Investing involves risk, and past performance doesn&#8217;t guarantee future results. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed/authorized professional who understands your objectives and risk profile.</em></p>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>