Risk assets have been hit hard, macro narratives have been thrown back into flux, and investors are being reminded, yet again, that in true crisis eras, history does not move in a straight line. It lurches. It shocks. And when it does, assumptions that had seemed stable only days earlier suddenly begin to look fragile, conditional, and open to renegotiations.

Throughout March, across the entire product roster at VMF Research, we have done far more than simply react to the headlines.

We have gone deep into this event, not just its immediate market implications, but its possible historical meaning.

In Alpha Tier, for instance, we asked whether this war in Iran could become America’s Suez Crisis of 1956. Not because history repeats mechanically. Not because every geopolitical rupture deserves imperial comparisons.

But because moments like these can reveal far more than investors first assume. They can expose strategic weakness, test credibility, and accelerate transitions that were already underway.

And, as always, we did not stop at analysis.

We adjusted our Model Portfolios.

In VMF’s Strategic Asset Allocation, we added a new position with heavy exposure to the Fourth Turning dynamics we have been writing about so extensively. In VMF’s Security Selection, we added a crypto Tollbooth specifically designed to benefit from what we believe may be the anatomy of this big cycle’s monetary reset. In other words, we are not merely trying to describe the world that may be emerging. We are trying to position for it.

That brings us to the Leaderboard.

At first glance, the Top 10 has not changed much.

The same broad themes remain in command. The same core positions continue to tell the story.

But just below that Top 10, some of our energy-linked positions are now vying for a place among the leaders. That is worth watching closely. In an environment increasingly shaped by war, chokepoints, and strategic scarcity, energy can very quickly move from supporting actor to central character.

At the same time, the drawdowns we are seeing in several other positions are a useful reminder that rigorous risk management is not optional.

It never is.

We have positions that have left the Top 10, such as ARK Innovation - , but where the process still worked exactly as intended because we exited half the position when it doubled.

That matters. In a volatile market, the path of a position matters almost as much as the final outcome. Booking gains, cutting exposure, and refusing to let a winning trade become a round trip is part of the discipline required to navigate a true crisis era.

But perhaps most important of all is this: in the middle of so much pessimism, we are finding unique pockets of opportunity.

Particularly in the Quality Risk Factor.

That is where some of the most interesting mispricings now appear to be emerging. High-quality franchises, with durable economics and strong competitive positions, are increasingly being priced like average businesses... or in some cases, even worse. That is the sort of setup serious investors should pay attention to. Because when fear becomes indiscriminate, quality often goes on sale with everything else.

There is, quite simply, a lot going on.

A serious geopolitical rupture. A market under pressure. A Leaderboard that remains more resilient than many might expect. Energy-linked positions pressing upward. Fresh evidence of why risk management matters.

And, beneath the surface, some very interesting opportunities beginning to emerge.

Stay tuned.

Vasco

Another gets crushed on the very same day.

Stocks that used to trade like a basket are suddenly behaving like strangers. Commodities that “should” move together are diverging.

And investors are learning (again) the sober reality: there is no such thing as “the market.” There are only regimes… and risk management.

That’s why we keep a public Leaderboard.

Not as a victory lap… but as a reality check.

Because in markets like this, the only thing that matters is whether your framework survives the noise and whether your Market View keeps showing up in prices.

Here’s the updated Top 10 across our product roster, with prices through February 18:

VMF Research’s Top 10 Positions - February 18th, 2026

A few things jump out.

First, dispersion is accelerating. Some positions kept compounding (the miners).

Some cooled off (silver).

Some quietly powered higher while the crowd stayed distracted (Korea).

Some held steady while “certainty” got repriced every week (gold).

That’s what regime-change markets do: they don’t hand out broad, easy wins. They separate narratives from fundamentals… and tourists from professionals.

Second, the leaderboard is still dominated by the same big macro pillars we’ve been writing about.

Because the world is being hit by waves of uncertainty on three fronts... and each wave is forcing capital to move fast.

One wave is geopolitical.

The “rules-based” era is cracking. Alliances are shifting. Supply chains are being redesigned with politics in mind, not efficiency. And if you’ve been following our Fourth Turning framework, none of this is surprising.

What’s surprising is how quickly it’s becoming visible in prices. In a Fourth Turning, markets stop rewarding comfort stories. They start rewarding resilience, real assets, and strategic leverage to the new order.

The second wave is liquidity.

Investors want simple answers to simple questions: Who runs the next liquidity cycle, and what do they do with the Fed’s balance sheet and the market’s plumbing?

Right now, there’s decent visibility on the first part (Kevin Warsh). But there’s far less visibility on the second. And in markets, uncertainty is often hated more than the actual bad news.

Call the next regime tighter, looser, or simply different... it doesn’t matter.

What matters is this: the future path of liquidity is becoming the only variable that truly moves the tape.

So, is it any surprise that the most liquidity-sensitive assets are the ones struggling the most? Think crypto.

That’s why we keep hammering the same message: watch liquidity like a hawk. It’s the tide underneath everything.

And then there’s the third wave… the one gripping markets the hardest over the last week:

Disruptive innovation.

Not the buzzword version. The real version, the one where new AI models don’t just improve productivity… they change competitive moats.

This is where dispersion turns violent.

Because AI doesn’t hit “tech”, or the broader economic fabric, evenly. It hits business models. It hits pricing power. It hits labour economics. It hits distribution. It hits who owns the customer relationship. And it slashes the cost of creating “good enough” software, content, and services.

In other words, the winners won’t be “AI companies” in the abstract.

The winners will be the companies that can turn AI into margin expansion, faster innovation cycles, and durable customer lock-in… while the losers wake up to find their moat has evaporated.

That’s why our work has been so intense over the last few weeks. Because in a market like this, the only edge that matters is having a framework for uncertainty... and then translating it into positioning.

If you’re reading this outside our paywall, here’s the honest truth.

The public leaderboard shows outcomes.

Behind the paywall you’ll find what actually matters: our takes on each of these three uncertainty waves and the actionable insights that come from them, including how we’re sizing risk, where we’re taking partial profits (the “closed half at double” part), and what we believe is setting up next as dispersion keeps widening.

This is not a market for passive narratives.

It’s a market for clear thinking… and decisive action.

Good investing,
VMF

Disclaimer: This is general information, not personalized investment advice. It’s not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Investing involves risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed/authorized professional who understands your objectives and risk profile.”

📌 Here’s our Leaderboard as of January 15, 2026.

What makes these numbers even more meaningful ?

We only started publishing in May 2024. In such a short time frame, the market has been rotating, aggressively, toward the Market View we’ve been holding since day one.

But here’s what matters most:
📌 It’s not just the returns. It’s also the position sizing.

Gold, for instance, started as a 10% position across several portfolios, and silver as a 5% allocation in our Alpha Tier Model Portfolio.

Now look at what +91% in gold and +197% in silver mean when they’re applied to positions of that size.

These weren’t “tiny dart throws.” They were core building blocks... by design, not by accident.

Why? Because if this really is a Fourth Turning, monetary reset dynamics don’t stay theoretical for long. They show up in prices.

Now, the other side of the coin…

A few of these themes are becoming mainstream.

They’re driving FOMO (fear of missing out) not only among retail investors, but increasingly among institutional players as well. That’s exactly why we invite you to explore our work in more depth... because we believe major rotations are still brewing in global markets, and 2026 is likely to be extremely volatile.

📌Inside VMF Research, you’ll find many more themes represented in our Model Portfolios, and some may soon dominate this leaderboard. Several are just as contrarian and out-of-the-box today as silver was when we started our journey.

Good investing.

Disclaimer: This is general information, not personalized investment advice. It’s not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Investing involves risk, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed/authorized professional who understands your objectives and risk profile.